Hello, I have a question from my Finite Math book(its not on this site) I've worked this problem about 5 times and have failed to get the correct answer.Please Help..
Problem: A mouse is put into a T-maze. he has the choise of turning left and being rewared w/ cheese or going to the right and receiving a mild shock. Before any conditioning takes place(i.e. on trial 1), the mouse is equally likely to go to the left or right.After the first trial his decision is influenced by what happened on previous trial.If he receives cheese on any trial, the probabilities of his going to the left or right become .9 and .1, respectively, on the following trial.If he receives the electric shock on any trial, the probabilities of his going to the left or right on next trial become .7 and .3, respectively. What is the probability that the mouse will turn left on the 2nd trial? What is the prob. the mouse will turn left on the 3rd trial?